Consumer climate: Germany divided Findings of the GfK consumer climate survey in September 2004

NUREMBERG (Germany) 28th September (ots/PROTEXT)- Trends inthe indicators reflecting the mood of German consumers, variedover the last two months, and in some cases the indicatorsdeclined. In September, however, the picture is more stable andpositive, with all indicators showing an upward trend. Germanexpectations of economic growth increased for the second time ina row. The indicator rose 6.5 points to minus 11.9, regainingthe level of June. Following a decline over the past two months,income expectations of consumers improved again by seven pointsto minus 12.3 per cent. However, the difference in the consumerclimate between eastern and western Germans evident in theprevious month has continued. While the indicator for incomeexpectations deteriorated in eastern Germany, it improved inwestern Germany. With a slight increase of 0.4 points to minus27.4 in September, the propensity to buy indicator remained atthe same level as the previous month and 4 points higher than inSeptember 2003. An East/West comparison again shows that westernGermans are beginning to spend again while consumers in easternGermany remain hesitant when it comes to making largerpurchases. Stabilization in the indicators for incomeexpectations, economic outlook and propensity to buy has broughta halt to the downturn in the consumer climate indicator. ForOctober, GfK is forecasting a consumer climate indicator of 2.4,up from the revised figure of 2.1 for September. As before,private consumption will fail to provide any major boost to theeconomy, a trend which is likely to continue until the end ofthe year. Decisive factors which could effect a reversal in thetrend would be economic growth and a positive sign from thelabour market. Contact: Dr. Ulrike Schöneberg Tel. +49 911 3952645 ulrike.schoeneberg@gfk.de

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