Consumer climate: uncertainty up slightly Results of a GfK consumer climate survey carried out in October 2004

Nuernberg (Germany) 27. 10. 2004 (PROTEXT/ots) - In general,German consumers were not particularly optimistic about theeconomy or their personal situation at the beginning of thefinal quarter for 2004. After Septembers slight rise, theindicators recording consumer mood fell back somewhat. Theindicator for economic expectations was 4.6 points down on lastmonth and is now around minus 16.5, which is 6 points lower thanthe same period previous year. And so any substantial revival ofthe expectations for economic growth seems to have recededfurther into the distance again for the moment. In terms ofearnings expectations have continued to fluctuate in bothdirections into autumn. In October, the indicator dropped 3.2points to a minus value of 15.5. With a drop of 1.2 points downfrom the previous month, the propensity to purchase indicatorfell negligibly by comparison with the indicators forexpectations concerning the economy and personal income andeconomic climate. The value for October is minus 28.6 points.This year, positive development of the propensity to make largerpurchases in the immediate future, can no longer be anticipated.Despite the slightly regressive development of the indicatorsdenoting economic and income expectations and the propensity topurchase, the consumer climate for November has stabilized ataround the previous months level. This is mainly attributable tothe fact that Germans are increasingly disinclined to save andthis has had a positive effect on the consumer climate. After arevised forecast of 2.3 for October 2004, the indicator forecastfor November is 2.3. Given the difficult economic climate and inparticular, the disadvantageous job market conditions, animprovement in domestic demand can hardly be expected.Ulrike.Schoeneberg@gfk.de, Tel. +49 (0)911 395-2645

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