Consumer climate: varied and changing Findings of the GfK consumer climate survey in August 2004

NÜRNBERG (Germany) Aug 27 (PROTEXT/ots) - Following theuniformly negative performance of all consumer climate indicatorsfor Germany last month, the developments in August have differedfor each indicator. The good news is that there no longer is aconsistent downward trend of the individual indicators. However,the bad news is that there is no marked upward trend either.

While the economic outlook indicator was slightly up, with astronger rise in the propensity to buy indicator, incomeexpectations were less optimistic. As the minor increase in theAugust indicators for income expectations and propensity to buycould not compensate for the drop in the previous month, GfKforecasts a consumer climate figure of 2.0 points for Septemberfollowing the revised August figure of 3.0 points.

Overall, it is apparent that the outlook of consumers inwestern Germany is far more positive than that of their fellowcitizens in eastern Germany. The main reason for the consumerclimate indicator not making a better recovery is that consumersin eastern Germany continued to be cautious about theirspending. In this region, the indicator had already lost in Julyand, again, fell significantly in August. Conversely, in Augustthere was a boost in the propensity to buy in western Germany.This suggests a divided consumer mood in eastern and westernGermany.

It is becoming increasingly clear that private consumption isunlikely to provide any impetus for an upturn in the economythis year. For this to happen, the labour market would need toimprove considerably and much depends also on whether the majoreconomies in the world recover, and if so, how dynamic economicgrowth is in these countries.

Contact: Dr. Ulrike Schöneberg Tel. +49-(0)911-395-2645ulrike.schoeneberg@gfk.de

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